11 June 2014

The Ontario election - what happened in 2011

The big day is tomorrow. Let's consider what went down the last time around. Being of an analytical frame of mind, I am naturally interested  in how the numbers played out.

I came across a rather interesting spreadsheet a while back from a British source, which allocates vote splits in a multi-party setting from one election to the next. When applied to the 2011 election, this is basically what happened:


The big winner then was the NDP, gaining by six points with about equal shares of the swing coming from the Liberals and the Greens.The Tories also gained as well with a gain of almost four points, with a similar pickup from Greens and Grits. That is what created the Liberal minority we have been going through these last three years.

How will the current situation translate into votes and seats? I will publish a similar analysis for Thursday's result, once all the votes are in.

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